Elections in Guinea-Bissau: what may happen in the short-term?

ImageOn the eve of the results coming to public, everything indicates that PAIGC’s candidate, José Mário Vaz (JOMAV), will win the Presidential elections. However, it seems that he won’t be able to gather the necessary percentage of votes to avoid a second round. The question is therefore who will run against JOMAV: independent candidate and Harvard-educated Paulo Gomes, or the candidate for the PRS – the second largest party -, Nuno Nabian, who was supported by late Kumba Yala?

It is clear that the people is set to maintain its preference for the PAIGC candidate as it had done in 2012 before the coup. This is a sign of opposition to the military junta that has controlled national affairs since independence. In addition, JOMAV has the endorsement of the individual who was the main target of the 2012 military coup – Carlos Gomes Junior -, meaning that Gomes Junior, forcibly exiled in Portugal, is set to return to the country in some way (even if not physically in the short-term).

How will Antonio Indjai and the military react to this most likely outcome? Will we witness another coup attempt, or an agreement between both? Still possible, will we witness Indjai’s resignation and see him flee to some other neighbouring country despite the international community’s (namely the US) condemnation of his actions in Guinea-Bissau?


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